The jobs report is projected to show another healthy wage gain. chief economist at Mastercard Economics Institute. “As long as the gap between demand and supply remains wide – or widens more as it did with this data – the upward pressure on wages will persist,” said Michelle Meyer, U.S. That’s one reason why the pace of wage growth may hold at exceptionally high levels and remain an enduring source of inflationary pressure. As of March, there were 1.9 job openings per unemployed worker - the largest such gap in government data back to late 2000. Survey comments from both the Institute for Supply Management’s latest manufacturing and service sector reports underscored persistent - and worsening - employment challenges. “We could see the unemployment rate fall quite a lot further - to 3%, perhaps even below,” said Julia Pollak, chief economist at ZipRecruiter, a job-search website. Powell also said it was “certainly possible” the unemployment rate may go down further. That’s a little more than half the average pace of employment growth in the past two jobs reports as measured by the government’s monthly survey of households.įed Chair Jerome Powell said Wednesday that job creation will slow amid less-supportive fiscal and monetary policy, and greater participation will allow the jobless rate to hold around 3.5% this year, consistent with the central bank’s March projection. That could pan out assuming that both the labor force participation rate rises to 62.9% from the current 62.4%, and the number of employed Americans increases by an average of 350,000 per month. The government’s report on Friday is expected to show employers added another 380,000 jobs in April, a moderate step down from March but still roughly double the average pace of payroll growth over the last expansion.Ĭalculations by Bloomberg Economics suggest it wouldn’t take much to get the jobless rate to 3% or lower by December. “I don’t see what will reverse it unless we hit a recession.”įed officials, who on Wednesday boosted interest rates by the most since 2000, said in a statement after a two-day policy meeting that “job gains have been robust in recent months” and there’s been a substantial drop in the jobless rate. “We’re going to be at historically very low unemployment rates very soon,” said Gad Levanon, chief economist at the Burning Glass Institute, a labor-market research group. Such intense need for workers risks sparking even faster wage growth at a time when the Fed is already trying to tamp down the highest inflation in four decades. Job openings and quits are back to fresh highs, and employment costs are growing at a record pace. The reason? Red-hot labor demand doesn’t appear to be cooling any time soon.
unemployment rate probably fell to 3.5% in April, matching the lowest reading since the 1960s, and many economists expect it to keep declining - potentially complicating the Federal Reserve’s fight against inflation.
0 kommentar(er)
